A United Ireland Referendum Should Not Become 'Another Brexit', Commentators Warn

Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."